Budget surplus: Old “problem” in new economy

*First appeared in the Laurel Chronicle on June 27, 2013

About the same time the economy collapsed, I began working in earnest on the state’s budget as part of Gov. Barbour’s budget policy team. (Note: There was no correlation between my working on the budget & dwindling tax revenues.)

In 2007, Mississippi’s fiscal situation was beginning to crumble: After enjoying years of healthy revenue growth, Mississippi’s collections tanked alongside the rest of the states’.

To get a sense of the impending financial doom, read from Gov. Barbour’s executive budget recommendation for Fiscal Year 2009: “We have to recognize the national economy has been softening. Serious troubles in the financial markets have not only generated pessimism but also have caused a real credit crunch…This will require considerable budget discipline. It means we’ll have to tell some people ‘No;’ it means some good things won’t get funded or won’t get as much funding as some people would like.”

The week before the FY 2009 budget recommendation was published, the front page of the Wall Street Journal had proclaimed, “States prepare to tighten belts as growth in revenue slows.” And the State Economist at the time warned lawmakers that sales tax receipts for July through December 2007 (the first half of the FY 2008 fiscal year) had increased only one-tenth of one percent.

For comparison purposes, consider the following: Gov. Barbour had proposed to increase spending in FY 2008 (the year before the downturn) by 7.5 percent; in FY 2009, he proposed a cautionary 0.4 percent increase.

Although the Legislature and Governor approved a modest budget to prepare for the downturn, it wasn’t enough. Lower-than-expected revenues forced Gov. Barbour to trim spending by $200 million in FY 2009. The sluggish economy required the Governor to cut the following year’s budget five times, or a reduction of $466 million in FY 2010.

Since that time, budgetary caution has been the name of the spending game…until now, perhaps. Earlier this month, we learned the state was on its way to a budget surplus for the current fiscal year, which ends this weekend (June 30). The House Appropriations chairman told another newspaper the surplus would likely be a “substantial” amount around $300 million.

As a friend of mine would say, that’s a lot of skrilla (translation: money).

Just think – Gov. Barbour’s first round of cuts in FY 2010 was roughly $171.9 million. Fast-forward to FY 2013 when the state’s tax collections for May exceeded the estimate by the same amount.

We must remember that for the last five or so years, lawmakers have rightly weighed spending against anemic revenue growth to determine budgeting priorities. A budget surplus? Well, that’s a new one on the current class at the State Capitol.

Already, groups are laying claim to the money. The Parents’ Campaign, which lobbies for education funding, sent an email blast to its members asking them to contact their legislators: “Ask them to commit to using the surplus to fully fund the MAEP before it is spent on other things.” (MAEP is the formula used to determine how much money goes to schools.)

At their annual meeting two weeks ago, Mississippi supervisors talked about the need to find additional money for programs like healthcare implementation and homestead exemption. There’s a legislative task force aimed at finding additional revenue for our state’s highway infrastructure. No one can ignore the rising costs of programs like Medicaid and the state retirement system, both of which will gobble up additional revenue.

For a few years, the Capitol-types (lobbyists, state agencies, etc.) recognized they simply weren’t going to get as much money as they wanted – if they got any at all. Policymakers were open to considering cost-cutting reform measures because they had to be. Now, with a budget surplus on the horizon, that mindset will likely vanish. Legislators, especially those on the money committees, can expect a little extra attention during the coming session.

Legislators can use the surplus in three ways: 1) increase funding for priority areas, like education; 2) reduce taxes to spur growth; and 3) set aside money for a “rainy day.” A likely scenario includes some combination of these options.

Until a final budget is adopted, legislators should be prepared for an onslaught of new spending options. Emboldened by a revenue surplus, state agencies and lobbyists will fight tooth and nail for a larger piece of the budgetary pie. While some of the longer-serving lawmakers remember the pre-recessionary days when revenue wasn’t as tight, a large part of the current class isn’t used to this much money – or the pressures that come with it.

It’s an old problem, for sure, but the reality is that Mississippi isn’t in the clear yet. While our revenues may be higher than expected, our economic picture is still slow to brighten. According to the latest stats, the state’s unemployment rate was tied for the second-highest in the nation with close to 120,000 Mississippians unemployed. Getting people back to work will take time, and revenues won’t fully catch back up until the employment situation bounces back.